Strategic alignment: Explaining Iran's integration of offensive cyber operations into its military strategy

This event will discuss an article that aims to explain Iran's increasingly assertive use of offensive cyber operations (OCOs) and their integration into its military strategy. It suggests that the upward trajectory of Iranian OCOs is best understood through strategic alignment - namely the convergence between Iran's cyber behaviour and the logics of asymmetry, ambiguity, escalation control, and strategic depth which have long defined Iranian strategic thinking. 

To assess the plausibility of this explanation, the article proceeds in four steps. First, it reviews the literature on Iranian OCOs and lays out the article's contribution. Second, it offers a discussion of the four central logics underpinning Iran's strategic thinking. Third, it tests strategic alignment against both theoretical insights from the cyber literature and empirical evidence drawn from two cases of Iranian OCOs: those targeting Israel's water infrastructure in 2020 and Albania's government websites in 2022. A separate section examines the June 2025 War between Iran and Israel and illustrates the limits of Tehran's ability to integrate OCOs into fast-paced wartime operations. The article concludes that both the theory and the practice of cyber operations corroborate the strategic alignment argument as a plausible explanation for the rise in Iranian OCOs and their integration in the country's military strategy.

Speaker

Eugenio Lilli (UCD)

Registration will close two hours before the event begins.