Turkey’s balancing of renewables and security: A middle power in energy transition
The following is the condensed version of the paper I presented at BISA’s 50th anniversary conference in Belfast, as part of the panel titled 'Climate leadership in a disintegrating international order?'
From the projections of peak oil demand by the end of this decade, to the growing sales of EVs, there is no doubt that global energy transition is underway. And as the world races to decarbonise, the focus often falls on major emitters like China or the United States. However, a quieter and equally important story is unfolding in countries such as Turkey, Brazil, and Indonesia—middle powers whose energy policy choices will substantially influence the trajectory of global energy transition.
As the International Energy Agency states, “The world’s energy and climate future increasingly hinges on decisions made in emerging and developing economies.” By 2050, emerging economies (excluding China) are expected to account for about half of the world’s energy demand.
The importance of middle powers’ energy policies extends beyond numbers. It is also robustly geopolitical. Middle powers are gaining greater policy autonomy as international politics hurtles toward multipolarity, and they face a unique set of constraints and opportunities in this context.
Three stand out:
- Improving energy security - reducing existing dependencies and generating new sources of energy
- Leveraging geography - resource endowments and geographical location
- Industrial strategy - investing in renewable energy and attendant technologies
None of these are specific to middle powers. Still, when their capabilities and the projections for their growing energy use in the future are refracted through the transition towards multipolarity, their significance becomes vividly evident. Turkey is one such case.
Turkey: A middle power pursuing energy security
Turkey’s energy strategy sits at the intersection of global transformation and national pragmatism. As a G20 country, NATO member, and regional player, Turkey exemplifies the dilemmas and opportunities faced by middle powers navigating the global energy transition. Its key challenge is to balance the drive for renewables with the imperative of energy security.
Perhaps the most crucial determinant of Ankara’s energy policy is its import dependence—around 74% of its energy is imported. Moreover, its leading suppliers—Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan—bring geopolitical complications. Despite substantial progress in renewables, Turkey’s energy story is still shaped by fossil fuels. Natural gas and oil imports remain vital, and the 2022 Ukraine war underscored the risks of external dependence. In response, Ankara pursued diversification—expanding LNG infrastructure, signing long-term contracts with Algeria and Qatar, and exploring offshore reserves in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
At the same time, Turkey continues to grow its coal and nuclear capacities, aiming to provide a stable and reliable energy supply. Coal is readily available locally, making it a convenient yet dirty option, while nuclear energy offers a dependable backbone in a region that can be quite unpredictable.
The question of nuclear energy is not purely technical. Given that Russia’s Rosatom is building the first nuclear power plant for a NATO member, critical security questions are raised.
Playing the middle power game through geography
Turkey’s continuing love affair with fossil fuels is partly geostrategic. The country sits between Europe—a region of capitalist dynamism and socio-economic affluence that demands vast energy inputs—and the Middle East and Central Asia, which together hold up to 60% of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves. Europe’s search for alternative natural gas transfer routes has grown after the Russian war on Ukraine and the Commission’s labelling of natural gas as “bridge fuel.”
Turkey has found fertile ground to expand its influence in this shifting energy landscape. Its energy diplomacy illustrates classic middle power behavior: coalition-building, regional leadership, and infrastructure-based influence. Its role as a transit hub is a case in point. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), and the TurkStream pipelines do not just bring revenue. They offer strategic leverage, making Turkey indispensable to both suppliers and consumers. This has strengthened Turkey’s diplomatic hand with the EU, which seeks to diversify away from Russian energy.
A renewable surge
Over the last decade, Turkey has emerged as a significant renewable energy player. As of 2024, about 55% of its installed electricity capacity comes from renewables, including wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal. It ranks among the global top 15 in wind and solar capacity. Ankara has used tools like feed-in tariffs and local content incentives to attract investment and stimulate local industry.
The Turkish journey towards decarbonisation reached a notable milestone in 2023 with the construction of a solar power plant by Kalyon in Karapinar (interior Anatolia). The facility, equipped with approximately 3.5 million solar panels, claims to be “the largest solar energy facility in Turkey and Europe.” It is not just a “green achievement,” however. This solar power plant is a strategic asset, framed in terms of energy security, technological sovereignty, and job creation.
Kalyon, one of Turkey’s most prominent conglomerates, has consistently secured major public tenders across sectors—from construction and infrastructure to energy—underscoring its close ties with the state. Therefore, its foray into renewables is not only a business venture but also a reflection of the political economy underpinning Turkey’s energy transition. The plant exemplifies how renewable investments can serve developmental and regime-reinforcing functions, revealing a pattern in which large-scale energy projects contribute to a broader regime of accumulation. In this context, energy policy is deeply intertwined with the regime’s durability, helping consolidate elite alliances and sustain political control through selective industrial patronage.
Strategic adaptation, not binary thinking
So, how should we interpret Turkey’s approach? It’s neither a climate laggard nor a green leader. Instead, it’s a case of strategic adaptation. Turkey’s energy policy is shaped not just by decarbonisation targets but by its geopolitical realities—its borders, alliances, and ambitions. And this tells us something broader about the global energy transition. It’s not a linear, technocratic process. It’s political. For middle powers like Turkey, energy is a means of asserting agency, gaining diplomatic weight, and navigating a volatile global order.
Bio: Yavuz Tuyloglu teaches International Relations at University College Groningen, the liberal arts college of the University of Groningen. His research explores the intersection between energy transition and international relations. You can find him on LinkedIn.
Top image from Wikimedia Commons, and attributed to the website of the President of Azerbaijan. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.
